2030, NATO is Transformed into a Global Network Dedicated to the Preservation of Homeland Security

Abstract

The strength of an extended military confederation lies much less in its accumulated power than in the clarity of its strategic line. Now, we must be aware that political intelligence often lacks when the imperial heart of a military organisation starts declining . This is why it is currently uneasy for NATO to predict its own future for 2030 . Its own documents of prospective are sometimes vague: “NATO may face adversaries consisting of states as well as non-state actors, that will work independently or in concert..." . They are marked, in any case, by a tremendous lack of imagination . It has been argued thatNATO would survive during the next fifteen years because it had already overcome major strategic upheavals . In fact, NATO will survive for another reason. The current geopolitical context has become so volatile that rigid bureaucratic military organisations have become perfectly inadequate to counter evanescent external threats. Moreover, the capacity of American and European states to decide of a foreign policy has strongly diminished because of their cultural deficit in the treatment of intelligence. The NATO network survives however in order to meet a completely different challenge than the original one. Its main task has become to ensure the internal order of countries that have been deeply destabilised by migrations . In 2030, diminished American and European countries are challenged by an ascending Russia. NATO has been paralysed by its own geocultural deficit. However, it achieves to adapt and transform, investing even more in technology in order to meet the new internal challenges.