Preview

Humanities and Social Sciences. Bulletin of the Financial University

Advanced search

Agent-Based, System Dynamic Models and Scenario Analysis as Forecasting Tools of Labor Demand

https://doi.org/10.12737/22954

Abstract

Forecasting of labor demand is the multistage process combining the different modeling methods and working with empirical data to provide reliable and consistent scenario for the future dynamic labor demand under the influence of multiple factors at the regional/ national level. Agent-based, system dynamic models and scenario analysis are widely used to predict changes in the labor market from the production side.

About the Authors

A. I. Ilyinsky
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation


T. A. Goroshnikova
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation


References

1. Forrester J.W., Mas N J., & Rya C J. (1976). The system dynamics national model: Understanding socio-economic behavior and policy alternatives. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 9(1-2), 51-68. DOI:10.1016/0040-1625(76)90044-5

2. Sterman J.D. (2000). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. (S. Isenberg, Ed.). Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill Companies.

3. Muminova A. Modeling workforce demand in North Dakota: a System Dynamics approach. Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of Master of Philosophy in System Dynamics (Universiteteti Bergen), Master of Science in System Dynamics (Universidade Nova de Lisboa) System Dynamics Group, University of Bergen, August, 2015.

4. Mutingi M. Dynamic simulation for effective workforce management in new product development. Management Science Letters 2 (2012), 2571-2580.

5. Wang J.A. System Dynamics Simulation Model for a Four-rank Military Workforce. DSTO Defense Science and Technology Organization, Edinburgh South Australia.

6. Ballot Gerard and Erol Taymaz. Training policies and economic growth in an evolutionary world. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 12(2001):311-329.

7. Fagiolo Giorgio, Dosi Giovanni and R. Gabriele. Matching, bargaining, and wage setting in an evolutionary model of labor market and output dynamics. Advances in Complex Systems 7 (2004): 157-186.


Review

For citations:


Ilyinsky A.I., Goroshnikova T.A. Agent-Based, System Dynamic Models and Scenario Analysis as Forecasting Tools of Labor Demand. Humanities and Social Sciences. Bulletin of the Financial University. 2016;6(4):36-39. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.12737/22954

Views: 274


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2226-7867 (Print)
ISSN 2619-1482 (Online)