Comprehensive Structural and Dynamic Analysis of the Change in the Population of the Voronezh Region during 2017–2021

The purpose of this study is to develop recommendations for improving socio-economic policy at the regional level. This study is carried out for the Voronezh region and concerns the period of 2017–2021. The observation period has been extended to 2012–2021 for measuring trends in population change under the influence of its natural decline and deceleration of post-arrival migration. Statistically significant trend equations were constructed for the birth rate and the level of post-arrival migration as the main sources of population growth in the region. The level of monthly cash income per capita is considered as one of the factors of the birth rate in the Voronezh region. The revealed strong inverse linear relationship between the signs is statistically significant and can be used for short-term forecasts of the birth rate in the region, depending on the change in the level of average monthly income per capita.

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