Transformation of Global Governance in the Focus of the Hierarchy Analysis Method: Scenarios and Models

The purpose of this study is to identify risks in global public administration under conditions of uncertainty using mathematical analysis methods that allow recognizing threats and thereby acting as a mechanism for their identification and mitigation. The modern global world order, which sets the trends for the transformation of world economic relations, is characterized by a high degree of turbulence and active confrontation between the Global North and the Global South in the struggle for resources and the rules of their distribution. Contrary to the stereotype of the omnipotence of digital tools capable of making longterm forecasts, the problem of recognizing the potential risks of decisions made and their relevance to a particular situation remains unresolved. Perhaps there has been a reassessment of the role of digital technologies used in global forecasting and not everything is as optimistic as we would like? Obviously, the possibilities for calculating various scenarios have become disproportionately greater, and the amount of information received about the world is growing daily, but for some reason all this does not give the desired effect. The methods used in the research are: mathematical modeling and forecasting, case study. The main conclusions of the study are the next: mathematical tools can provide significant support in identifying optimal solutions or constructing trends, while the results of their use are highly dependent on the attitudes and cognitive abilities of decision makers and experts who use them. The use of such tools correlates with the “picture of the world”, a set of attitudes towards reading the problem, which reduces the adequacy of the search for “optimal” solutions, increases the window of opportunity for the appearance of “black swans”, by the terminology of N.Taleb, difficult-to-predict and rare events with special characteristics and generating significant consequences. By the term “Average”, he understood the reality in which the sample population is large, and a single case does not significantly change the total amount. On the contrary, the term “Extremistan” refers to a reality where a single event can disproportionately affect the aggregate or overall indicator. In such conditions, the most effective solutions lie in the non-standard approach of human thinking. The theoretical significance of the study lies in identifying the predictive potential of using mathematical tools in the public management of digital society as a means of overcoming uncertainty, recognizing the opportunities and risks of using such tools in global management.

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