humanitiesГуманитарные науки. Вестник Финансового университетаHumanities and Social Sciences. Bulletin of the Financial University2226-78672619-1482Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2226-7867-2018-8-3-59-69humanities-238Research ArticleГЛОБАЛЬНЫЙ МИР И ВНЕШНЯЯ ПОЛИТИКА РОССИИЭМПИРИЧЕСКОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ СОСТОЯНИЯ И ПОТЕНЦИАЛА РАЗВИТИЯ КИТАЙСКО-РОССИЙСКОЙ ДВУСТОРОННЕЙ ТОРГОВЛИAN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON STATUS AND POTENTIAL OF SINO-RUSSIAN BILATERAL TRADEЯнгДа.YangDa.yangda5160@163.comЦуйП.CuiP.noemail@neicon.ruШкола международных исследований Университета ЛяонинРоссияLiaoning University School of International StudiesRussian Federation201822082018835969Copyright © Янг Д., Цуй П., 20182018Янг Д., Цуй П.Yang D., Cui P.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://humanities.fa.ru/jour/article/view/238

В данной работе авторы применяют индексы интенсивности и взаимодополняемости торговли для статистического анализа китайско-российской двусторонней торговли на основе данных о двусторонних торговых сделках с 2006 по 2016 г. Также авторы использовали расширенную гравитационную модель торговли для эмпирического анализа факторов, влияющих на потоки двусторонней торговли и торгового потенциала в неизменных и улучшенных условиях. Авторы отмечают, что даже при сильных колебаниях объемов и темпов роста российско-китайского товарооборота интенсивность и взаимодополняемость являются очевидными, а возможности для развития двусторонней торговли относительно велики. Кроме того, можно было бы эффективно развивать двустороннюю торговлю путем совершенствования неформальной системы. Авторы также делают некоторые политические предложения в отношении механизма сотрудничества, структуры торговли, зоны свободной торговли и культурной коммуникации на основе прежних эмпирических исследований.

This paper uses trade intensity index and trade complementarity index for statistical analysis of Sino-Russian bilateral trade status, adopting the bilateral trade data from 2006 to 2016, and uses the extended trade gravity model for empirical analysis of influencing factors on bilateral trade flows and trade potential respectively under the circumstances of invariable and improved terms of trade. We find that even if the fluctuations of Sino-Russian bilateral trade volume and growth rate are strong, the intensity and complementarity are both evident and there is a relatively large space for bilateral trade development. Furthermore, it could be effective to develop bilateral trade through improving informal-system at a family degree. We also give some policy suggestions in terms of cooperative mechanism, trade structure, FTA (Free Trade Area) and culture communication, on the basis of former empirical research.

китайско-российская двусторонняя торговляторговый статусторговый потенциалгравитационная модельSino-Russian bilateral tradetrade statustrade potentialgravity modelReferencesSource: Big Data Report of Trade Cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative 2017Source: Big Data Report of Trade Cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative 2017Product codes SITC 0-SITC 9 separately represent food and live animals, beverages and tobacco, inedible raw materials other than fuel, mineral fuels, lubricants and related raw materials, animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes, no-listed chemicals and related products, manufactures mainly classified by materials, machinery and transport equipment, miscellaneous manufactured articles and other uncategorized goods and transactionsProduct codes SITC 0-SITC 9 separately represent food and live animals, beverages and tobacco, inedible raw materials other than fuel, mineral fuels, lubricants and related raw materials, animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes, no-listed chemicals and related products, manufactures mainly classified by materials, machinery and transport equipment, miscellaneous manufactured articles and other uncategorized goods and transactionsIndex of Trade Intensity (TCD) is an index used to measure the trade intensity of a trade partner. Its value is equal to the ratio of a country’s exports to certain trading partner of the country’s total exports divided by the rate of the partner’ exports accounted for the proportion of total world importsIndex of Trade Intensity (TCD) is an index used to measure the trade intensity of a trade partner. Its value is equal to the ratio of a country’s exports to certain trading partner of the country’s total exports divided by the rate of the partner’ exports accounted for the proportion of total world importsRevealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) is an index comparing a proportion of a specific kind of export goods in a country’s total exportations and the proportion of this kind of goods in the global total exportationsRevealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) is an index comparing a proportion of a specific kind of export goods in a country’s total exportations and the proportion of this kind of goods in the global total exportationsThe data of culture differences comes from Hofstede(2001), At first, we should remove the excluded countries and then we select four dimensions of PDI,IDV,MAS and UAI in Hofstede (2001) due to some countries missing IND and LTO indictors. On this basis, we construct culture difference index variables combining the method of Kogut and Singh (1988)The data of culture differences comes from Hofstede(2001), At first, we should remove the excluded countries and then we select four dimensions of PDI,IDV,MAS and UAI in Hofstede (2001) due to some countries missing IND and LTO indictors. On this basis, we construct culture difference index variables combining the method of Kogut and Singh (1988)Generally speaking, if VIF>10, there exists severe multiple collinear; if 5 < VIF № 10, there exists a degree of multiple collinear conditions; if VIF<5, there is no multiple collinear. The VIF values in results of the model test are all under 5, which indicates there exists no multi-collinearity problem. In other words, if you do not include the above explanatory variables, there could be a variable-missing problemGenerally speaking, if VIF>10, there exists severe multiple collinear; if 5 < VIF № 10, there exists a degree of multiple collinear conditions; if VIF<5, there is no multiple collinear. The VIF values in results of the model test are all under 5, which indicates there exists no multi-collinearity problem. In other words, if you do not include the above explanatory variables, there could be a variable-missing problem

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.