humanitiesГуманитарные науки. Вестник Финансового университетаHumanities and Social Sciences. Bulletin of the Financial University2226-78672619-1482Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.12737/22954humanities-120Research ArticleФУНДАМЕНТАЛЬНОЕ НАУЧНОЕ ЗНАНИЕFUNDAMENTAL SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGEСИСТЕМНАЯ ДИНАМИКА, АГЕНТНОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ И СЦЕНАРНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТЫ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ПОТРЕБНОСТИ В КВАЛИФИЦИРОВАННЫХ КАДРАХAgent-Based, System Dynamic Models and Scenario Analysis as Forecasting Tools of Labor DemandИльинскийА. И.IlyinskyA. I.AIlyinsky@fa.ruГорошниковаТ. А.GoroshnikovaT. A.TAGoroshnikova@fa.ruФинансовый университет при Правительстве Российской ФедерацииРоссияFinancial University under the Government of the Russian FederationRussian Federation201622082018643639Copyright © Ильинский А.И., Горошникова Т.А., 20182018Ильинский А.И., Горошникова Т.А.Ilyinsky A.I., Goroshnikova T.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://humanities.fa.ru/jour/article/view/120

Прогнозирование потребности экономики в квалифицированной рабочей силе это сложный многоступенчатый процесс, объединяющий различные научные методы. Способность агентных, системно-динамических и сценарных моделей полноценно прогнозировать изменения на рынке труда и/или помогать в выборе оптимальной политики облегчает вычислительные процессы и позволяет получить картину возможных исходов в заданных условиях. В виду своей гибкости, модели перспективны для достоверных прогнозов динамики рынка труда.

Forecasting of labor demand is the multistage process combining the different modeling methods and working with empirical data to provide reliable and consistent scenario for the future dynamic labor demand under the influence of multiple factors at the regional/ national level. Agent-based, system dynamic models and scenario analysis are widely used to predict changes in the labor market from the production side.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.